River Flood Forecasting Using Complementary Muskingum Rating Equations
نویسندگان
چکیده
A model for real-time flood forecasting in river systems with large drainage areas has been developed. Flow variations between upstream and downstream stations are interlinked and are typically governed by reach properties. Unique paired variations establish useful flow correspondence resulting in inflow and outflow forecasting models for a reach. The proposed model can generate forecasts with increased lead time without applying a separate inflow forecasting model and can also provide updated forecasts essential for real-time applications. The model was applied to flood forecasting in Tar River Basin, N.C., covering a drainage area of 13,921 km2. The model aggregates multiple upstream flows to provide long range forecasts for two downstream stations in the basin. Applicability of the model in estimating complete upstream and downstream hydrographs was demonstrated using a textbook example. Application results indicate that the new model can provide complete and updatable evolution of hydrographs using the current flow state. DOI: 10.1061/ ASCE HE.1943-5584.0000046 CE Database subject headings: Streamflow; Water demand; Forecasting; Surface water; Open channel flow; Drainage; North Carolina.
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